How sustainable is the UK’s school leadership?

The UK is not yet facing a school leadership “pipeline crisis”, but is it facing a sustainability crisis?

The Sustainable School Leadership final report, published last month, presents findings from a large-scale, three-year study examining the training, recruitment, retention, and long-term viability of senior school leadership across England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Drawing on over 1,600 participants, it highlights significant concerns about the sustainability of headship and the evolving nature of the role.  The participants are mainly, although not exclusively, drawn from the state sector.

The report’s main conclusion is that the UK is not yet facing a leadership “pipeline crisis,” but rather a “sustainability crisis.” While most schools are still able to recruit headteachers, fewer individuals aspire to the role, and many current leaders are considering leaving early. Previous research suggested that 30–40% of headteachers planned to leave the profession prematurely due to intense pressures, while current data indicates that around 15% intend to leave within the next two years. This points to a clear risk that sustainability challenges may soon translate into longer term recruitment shortages.

More Complex Workload

One of the report’s most striking findings is the sharp increase in workload and complexity. A substantial majority of leaders (88%) report that the role has become more difficult since the COVID-19 pandemic, which is widely seen as a turning point. While change over time is unavoidable, leaders describe recent developments as rapid and substantial. Key drivers include increasingly complex pupil needs, staffing shortages, financial constraints, and heightened parental expectations.  All these factors were highlighted in HMC’s own report on the future of headship published in October 2023.

A central theme is the expansion of schools’ responsibilities beyond education into wider care functions. With reduced external services, schools are increasingly expected to address mental health needs, support families in crisis, and respond to complex social challenges. As one leader put it, “everything rolls downhill to schools.”

As a result, leadership priorities have shifted, with less time devoted to teaching and learning and more focus on inclusion, safeguarding, behaviour and wellbeing. Although many leaders are driven by a strong moral purpose, this expanded role is emotionally demanding and often insufficiently recognised.

Surviving or Sinking

These pressures contribute directly to concerns about wellbeing and burnout. Many leaders describe themselves as “surviving” or “sinking,” highlighting the emotional strain associated with the role. Younger and less experienced headteachers appear particularly vulnerable, with evidence suggesting they are less likely to remain in post for extended periods. The cumulative weight of responsibility, combined with limited support, raises serious questions about the long-term sustainability of leadership careers.

Recruitment and aspiration present further challenges. While approximately one-third of middle and senior leaders express interest in headship, many are deterred by the perceived intensity of the role. Deputies are often reluctant to step up due to concerns about workload, accountability, and increased scrutiny. In some areas, recruitment has become more difficult, with smaller applicant pools and occasional failed appointment processes.

More Diverse Leadership

The report also identifies persistent issues surrounding leadership diversity. Across all three nations, there is a notable lack of ethnic diversity among headteachers, with especially low representation in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Women are also under-represented relative to the wider teaching workforce. Although these issues are widely acknowledged, there is limited coordinated action or clear ownership of responsibility.

In terms of preparation for headship, many leaders report feeling underprepared when they first enter the role. A significant proportion describe their pathway as unplanned or “accidental,” and many lacked confidence at the beginning of their headship. The report suggests that practical experience, mentoring, coaching, and exposure to challenging situations are more effective in preparing leaders than formal qualifications.

Despite these challenges, the report recognises that many leaders continue to find headship very rewarding. Sustaining factors include working with pupils, strong professional relationships, opportunities for growth, and a sense of moral purpose.

Intense but rewarding

However, this creates a paradox: the very aspects that make the role meaningful also contribute to its intensity. Leaders may feel both energised and overwhelmed, sometimes simultaneously. Over time, accumulated pressures or critical incidents can push individuals beyond their limits, leading to burnout and eventual exit from the profession.

The report concludes that urgent and coordinated action is required. Recommendations include developing national strategies for sustainable leadership, strengthening succession planning, expanding access to mentoring and coaching, and addressing leadership diversity. Crucially, it emphasises that solutions must not be overly standardised. Instead, a “local solutions” approach is needed—one that combines national direction with flexibility to respond to the specific contexts in which schools operate.

Ultimately, without meaningful intervention, today’s sustainability crisis is likely to become a full pipeline crisis, threatening both the supply and stability of future school leadership. In effect, the system is relying on the resilience and goodwill of current leaders to hold it together. That is not a sustainable model. Unless the role is reshaped and better supported, the risk is not simply fewer applicants, but a gradual erosion of leadership capacity across the system.

Key priorities and recommendations:

• Expand structured mentoring and coaching for new and aspiring heads
• Modernise recruitment to widen and diversify applicant pools
• Strengthen succession planning at school, trust, and system levels